+75%, +95% – the percentages just keep flying in the prices, and it means worse and worse

Most people probably already know from the outside that the hardware hunger of artificial intelligence (more precisely, the systems that operate the models) is insatiable, and since it is a question of high-paying customers, manufacturers – for the sake of profit – primarily contract with them.

Now another forecast confirms this: the Taiwanese one TrendForce according to a market researcher, the prices of traditional DRAMs may rise by 58-63 percent in the second quarter of the year (compared to the same period of the previous year), and those of NAND Flashes by 70-75 percent. This is extremely unpleasant if only in the first quarter, the price increase was huge, 95 percent in a quarterly comparison. All this suggests that it is not a one-time swing, but a permanent, structural price increase.

For DRAMs, TrendForce believes that higher prices are expected to be supported by continued tight supply. Although overall demand in the PC DRAM market is declining, suppliers have also reduced shipments to PC OEMs and module manufacturers. This means that even fewer products remain on the “free market”, which further increases the feeling of scarcity and raises prices. And those manufacturers who do not get sufficient quantities through their usual channels are forced to purchase the necessary components at a higher price – thereby inadvertently contributing to the price spiral.

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NAND Flash’s quarterly growth of around 75 percent outpaces DRAM for the first time in the current cycle, while demand for enterprise SSDs has not slowed as large-scale generative AI deployments continue to eat up the lion’s share of production capacity. TrendForce expects a significant shortfall through 2026, and new production capacity is unlikely to come on stream in large quantities until late 2027 or 2028; cloud providers are willing to pay more and enter into multi-quarter purchase agreements to guarantee allocation.

Although in the short term we may still see favorable prices on store shelves, this can easily be deceiving. As indicated by the TrendForce analysis, the contract prices associated with large-volume purchases are already rising sharply, and their effect will inevitably affect the consumer market over time. By the time that happens, customers may be facing a whole new price level. There is only one piece of advice for those who are planning to build a machine or buy a laptop: don’t wait too long.

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